Turning the Italian Silver Economy into gold: providing goods and services to an ageing population ​

5
Intr oduc ti on
T his the sis a ddre sse s one of the most c ruc ia l soc ioe c onomic a l proble ms for the future
of our c ountry, the issue of a ge ing of the Ita lia n popula tion, a na lysing the c ha lle nge s
a nd opportunitie s re la te d to it, with the a im of c ontributing to the study of Silve rs
be ha viour towa rd innova tive solutions a ble to e nsure suc c e ssful a ge ing of the
popula tion. T his tre nd is drive n by the de mogra phic dyna mic s of W e ste rn c ountrie s,
e spe c ia lly by the le ngthe ning of a ve ra ge life a nd the fa ll in the birth ra te . T he inc re a se
in life e xpe c ta nc y is a sign of the de ve lopme nt of soc ie ty a nd, a bove a ll, of its me dic a l
a nd sc ie ntific progre ss, while the fa ll in births ma inly de pe nds on obsta c le s of da ily life ,
suc h a s une mployme nt, job inse c urity or insuffic ie nt polic ie s to re c onc ile work a nd
fa mily life a nd the inve stme nt in e duc a tion, whic h move s the time to sta rt a fa mily so
fa r forwa rd tha t the birth ra te is a ffe c te d. T he thre a t c ould je opa rdiz e not only the he a lth
se c tor, but the e c onomic a nd soc ia l ba la nc e of the e ntire c ountry. In fa c t, the a ge ing of
the popula tion is tra ditiona lly a ssoc ia te d with ne ga tive e c onomic phe nome na , na me ly
the inc re a se in public e xpe nditure on he a lth a nd soc ia l c a re se rvic e s, inc re a se d pre ssure
on the pe nsion syste m a nd a de c line in workforc e a nd c onsumption. T hus, a n e c onomy
ba se d on this growing pa rt of the popula tion c ould be a driving forc e for the c ountry's
e c onomic re c ove ry. T he offe r of produc ts, se rvic e s a nd innova tions a ime d a t this
a udie nc e re pre se nts the Silve r E c onomy, a ma rke t of opportunitie s a rising from ne e ds
a nd wa nts of olde r pe ople still in a utonomy a nd in the fullne ss of the ir physic a l, c ognitive
a nd fina nc ia l c a pa bilitie s. As a re fe re nc e , if it we re a sta te , the Silve r E c onomy would
be the world's third-la rge st e c onomic powe r, just be hind the Unite d Sta te s a nd C hina .
T he first c ha pte r ope ns with the de finition of Silve r E c onomy a c c ording to diffe re nt
studie s, ra nging from na tiona l to E urope a n a nd inte rna tiona l one s. T he de finitions
inc lude a ge ne ra lly ide ntic a l ta rge t a udie nc e , the Silve rs, but de pe nding on the re se a rc h,
the sa mple the y use va rie s in minimum a ge . T he la tte r ma y or ma y not be se t rigidly by
the re se a rc he rs in que stion, while othe r me thods sugge st a more fle xible a pproa c h to
de fine the lowe r bounda ry tha t distinguishe s se nior a ge . Ge ne ra lly, se niors c a n be
divide d into two broa d c a te gorie s, those who se e k gre a te r pe rsona l a utonomy a nd
inde pe nde nc e a nd those who ne e d a ssista nc e . R e ga rdle ss of the diffe re nc e s, the studie s
foc us on the re va lua tion of the e lde rly, who should not be la be lle d a s a pa ssive a c tor
6
le a ding to ne ga tive impa c ts on soc ie ty, but a s a diffe re nt se gme nt of the popula tion
c ha ra c te riz e d by ne e ds a nd de sire s tha t, if prope rly ide ntifie d a nd sa tisfie d, c a n ge ne ra te
positive outc ome s, suc h a s inc re a se d c onsumption a nd life sa tisfa c tion, gre a te r busine ss
opportunitie s a nd job c re a tion. Subse que ntly, the a ge ing tre nd unde rwa y in Ita ly will be
e xa mine d in de pth, ta king into c onside ra tion the c omposition of the Ita lia n popula tion
a nd se ve ra l de mogra phic indic e s, na me ly the birth ra te , life e xpe c ta nc y, old-a ge -
de pe nde nc y ra tio, na tura l ba la nc e , ne t migra tion, struc tura l de pe nde nc y inde x, the old-
a ge de pe nde nc y ra tio, a ve ra ge a ge a nd the old-a ge inde x, tha t will be e nric he d with a
c ompa rison with the c ountrie s tha t, more tha n a ny othe r, a re a ffe c te d by this thre a t a nd
the ma in fore c a sts on the future tre nd of the phe nome non.
T he se c ond c ha pte r will shift the foc us to the e c onomic le ve l, a na lysing the
c onse que nc e s re la te d to the world of work a nd the we a lth of the popula tion by a ge group.
Spe c ific a lly, it will de pic t wha t the inve rsion of the a ge pyra mid ha s me a nt in the world
of work ove r the pa st 10 ye a rs. Sta rting with the worke rs, the a ve ra ge na tiona l sa la ry
will be c ompa re d with a ve ra ge sa la rie s by a ge group, a nd the sa me a na lysis will be
c a rrie d out by e xa mining the othe r ma in E urope a n ma rke ts, na me ly Ge rma ny, Fra nc e
a nd the UK. An a na lysis will the n be c onduc te d on Ita lia n pe nsione rs, inc luding the ir
distribution a nd tha t of the re la tive pe nsions, throughout the c ountry. In the se c ond pa rt
of the c ha pte r, a fte r obse rving growth ra te s of pe nsions c ompa re d to those of sa la rie s
sinc e 2000, the inc ome of the Silve rs will be c ompa re d with the sa la rie s re c e ive d by
worke rs to ide ntify groups tha t e me rge a s the most fina nc ia lly sta ble , through
re pre se nta tion of a ve ra ge e quiva le nt inc ome , a ve ra ge ne t we a lth a nd pove rty risk. In the
la st pa rt, the c onc e pt of te c hnology ga p be twe e n ge ne ra tions will be introduc e d, a s the
lite ra ture ha s disc usse d e lde rly innova tions ma inly from the point of vie w of how
te c hnology is a ble to e nsure or stre ngthe n the a utonomy a nd inde pe nde nc e of the se
pe ople .
T he third c ha pte r will c ontribute to a broa d de e pe ning of the la tte r point, inc luding
lite ra ture on ne e d-ba se d innova tions, to de ve lop solutions for the spe c ific ne e ds of
e lde rly, the c o-c re a tion proc e ss, to ma ke the m more suite d to Silve rs' de ma nd through
a c tive pa rtic ipa tion in the de ve lopme nt pha se , Unive rsa l De sign, to e xte nd the a udie nc e
of use rs re ga rdle ss of the ir diffe re nc e s, fa c ilita tors a nd ba rrie rs to the a doption of
te c hnology, tha t promote a c c e pta nc e or ge ne ra te re je c tion towa rds it a nd a ge ing in pla c e ,
7
the point of a rriva l c ha ra c te riz e d by the a bility of se niors to live inde pe nde ntly e ve n in
the la tte r sta ge s of life , ge ne ra ting a positive impa c t both for the mse lve s a nd for soc ie ty.
A se rie s of pra c tic a l e xa mple s of innova tions tha t promote pe rsona l a utonomy a re
provide d, ta king Ja pa n a s a re fe re nc e , be ing tra ditiona lly se e n a s the fa the r of te c hnology
a nd the c ountry tha t toda y sta nds out for the world-la rge st sha re of e lde rly pe ople a nd
tha t ha s move d to c ounte r the a ge ing phe nome non a nd turn it into a wide ra nge of
opportunitie s for the c ountry.
T he fourth c ha pte r c onta ins the inte rvie w, toge the r with the re la tive a nswe rs a nd re vie w,
tha t wa s propose d to a n a udie nc e of ove r-65s with the obje c tive of unde rsta nding the ir
de gre e of a c c e pta nc e a nd a doption of te c hnology, ide ntifie d by lite ra ture a s one of the
most promising solution to e nsure be tte r life qua lity or a life a s inde pe nde nt a s possible
for a s long a s possible , so a s to de la y hospita liz a tion or e ntry into othe r c a re fa c ilitie s,
tha t will be a lre a dy se ve re ly te ste d by sta ff shorta ge s a nd the simulta ne ous e xpa nsion of
the se nior se gme nt to a ssist.
T he c onc lusion a ims to provide a summa ry of the c ritic a litie s of the a ging phe nome non
a nd the opportunitie s of the Silve r E c onomy, while offe ring insight into how olde r
pe ople a pproa c h innova tions a nd whe the r the y c a n provide ne w e c onomic a nd busine ss
opportunitie s for c ompa nie s a nd be ne fits for the c ommunity a nd the c ountry a s a whole .
Pag. 9 a 94
CH AP T E R 1 • T H E IT AL IAN SIL VE R E CO NO M Y
1.1 De finition of Silve r E c onomy
W hilst the re isn’t a single a gre e d de finition, the Silve r E c onomy e nc ompa sse s the se t of
e c onomic a c tivitie s tha t trie s to sa tisfy the ne e ds a nd wa nts of the olde st pa rt of the
popula tion, the Silve rs. It inc lude s the produc tion a nd c onsumption of goods a nd
se rvic e s, inc luding both the ir own priva te e xpe nditure a nd the goods a nd se rvic e s the y
c onsume tha t a re fina nc e d by the public se c tor in se c tors suc h a s he a lth, soc ia l a ssista nc e ,
c onstruc tion, tra nsport, insura nc e , food industry, c ommunic a tions, tourism, c ulture a nd
le isure . In the Ita lia n sc e na rio, INAPP (Na tiona l Institute for Public Polic y Ana lysis)
de fine s the Silve r E c onomy a s the “ e c onomic opportunitie s (in te rms of public
e xpe nditure but a lso c onsumption of the re fe re nc e popula tion) ine vita bly linke d to the
a ge ing of the popula tion” (C he c c uc c i, 2019) a nd it fixe s the lowe r bound of the ta rge t
sa mple a t 50 ye a rs old, the sa me a s the Ita lia n Institute of T e c hnology whic h sta te s tha t
“ the Silve r E c onomy is the se t of e c onomic a c tivitie s re la te d to the ne e ds a nd de ma nds
of the ove r 50” (Ma uric i, 2019). On the othe r ha nd, in c onduc ting its re se a rc h, Ista t
c la ssifie s a s “ Silve r” the popula tion ove r 65 ye a rs old, limiting its re fe re nc e a udie nc e
by a dopting the a ge tha t in most c ountrie s c oinc ide s with the le ga l or e ffe c tive re tire me nt
a ge a s we ll a s the Obse rva tory on public e xpe nditure a nd re ve nue , whic h re fe rs to Silve r
E c onomy a s “ the c omple x of e c onomic a c tivitie s spe c ific a lly ta rge te d a t the popula tion
a ge d 65 or ove r offe ring ta ngible a nd inta ngible se rvic e s, goods, c onsume r or
inve stme nt produc ts a nd forms of psyc hologic a l, re ha bilita tion a nd he a lth c a re
a ssista nc e ” (Itine ra ri Pre vide nz ia li Study a nd R e se a rc h C e nte r, 2020). A study publishe d
by Poste Ita lia ne a nd Osse rva torio Se nior provide s a n ove rvie w of the Silve r E c onomy,
spe a king of it a s “ the e c onomy tha t is ba se d on me e ting the ne e ds of the more ma ture
pa rt of the popula tion” (B a ra witz ka , Oggioni & R osina , 2020), sta rting the a na lysis from
55 ye a rs of a ge . B roa de ning the horiz on to the E urope a n a nd inte rna tiona l sc e na rios, the
re port c ommissione d by the E urope a n C ommission in 2018 a nd c onduc te d by Oxford
E c onomic s toge the r with the T e c hnopolis group, c a lle d "T he Silve r E c onomy", spe a ks
of the topic a s “ the e c onomic opportunitie s a rising from the public a nd c onsume r
e xpe nditure re la te d to popula tion a ge ing a nd the spe c ific ne e ds of the popula tion ove r
Pag. 10 a 94
50” . In a ddition, the 2013 brie fing pa pe r pre pa re d by Oxford E c onomic s for the
Ame ric a n non-profit orga niz a tion AAR P, re pre se nts the Silve r E c onomy a s “ the sum of
a ll e c onomic a c tivity drive n by the ne e ds of Ame ric a ns a ge d 50 a nd olde r a nd inc lude s
both produc ts a nd se rvic e s the y purc ha se dire c tly a nd the furthe r e c onomic a c tivity this
spe nding ge ne ra te s” , whe re a s the OE DC re c ognise s the c onc e pt a s “ a n e nvironme nt in
whic h the ove r-60 inte ra c t a nd thrive in the workpla c e , e nga ge in innova tive e nte rprise ,
he lp drive the ma rke tpla c e a s c onsume rs a nd le a d he a lthy, a c tive a nd produc tive live s” .
T he n, the Silve rSUDE O proje c t re port of 2013, use s the te rm to de sc ribe “ the ma rke t
e c onomy for the olde r a ge groups in our popula tions, for our purpose s, the 50-70-ye a r-
old a ge group” . In this wa y, the study on a wide r a nd dive rsifie d popula tion in te rms of
life style a nd c onsumption he lps to ove rc ome the ne ga tive ste re otype of a ging, pla c ing
the be ginning pha se a t 50 ye a rs of a ge , during the working sta ge of the life c yc le . On the
othe r ha nd, inc luding suc h a la rge sa mple le a ds to a ve ry he te roge ne ous group of pe ople .
In fa c t, most of the 50 to 65 c itiz e ns a re still involve d in the working pha se of the ir c a re e r
or ha ve to support the ir c hildre n, whe re a s a t a n olde r a ge , pe ople a re pe nsione rs living
a lone or a s a c ouple , ge ne ra ting diffe re nt be ha viours a nd ne e ds e ve n within the Silve r
se gme nt. Othe rs fix the lowe r bound of the ta rge t se gme nt following a c omple te ly
diffe re nt a pproa c h. T he a ge ing proc e ss is a va ria ble proc e ss, a s improve me nts in he a lth
a nd living c onditions ha ve c ha nge d the c onc e pt of the e lde rly ove r time . Inste a d of
imple me nting a fixe d a ge ra nge to indic a te this c a te gory of pe ople , for some a uthors it
wa s sma rte r to proc e e d by ide ntifying the minimum a ge of the e lde rly c onside ring the
ye a rs tha t re ma in to live inste a d of those a lre a dy live d (R yde r, 1975). For e xa mple , if
the life e xpe c ta nc y a t birth is 85 ye a rs a nd the re ma ining life e xpe c ta nc y is se t a t 20
ye a rs, a ll pe rsons a ge d 65 or ove r would be re ga rde d a s Silve rs. T his me thod would still
ignore a nothe r a spe c t, tha t of life qua lity during the a ging proc e ss. For this re a son,
a nothe r proposa l sugge sts c onside ring the e lde rly no longe r ba se d on the numbe r of
ye a rs le ft to live but ba se d on the numbe r of ye a rs tha t c a n be e xpe c te d to live in good
he a lth (E gidi, 1997). T o da te , the re is no c onve rge nc e on the a ge thre shold tha t de fine s
the Silve r E c onomy. Some de finitions do not e ve n inc orpora te this da ta , spe a king of the
Silve r E c onomy a s “ c ha ra c te rise d by a foc us on the opportunitie s a rising from a ge ing,
in te rms of ne w a nd growing ma rke ts to me e t the ne e ds of the inc re a sing numbe r of
olde r pe ople ” (E a toc k, 2015), a nd a s “ a ll type s of goods a nd se rvic e s for olde r a dults
a nd a n a ge ing popula tion, inc luding e xte nding the working life , volunte e rism a nd a c tive
Pag. 11 a 94
c itiz e nship of olde r pe ople ’’ (Klimc z uk, 2017). T he c onc e pt of Silve r E c onomy a lso
inc orpora te s a diffe re nt wa y of de a ling with a n a ge ing popula tion. Public e xpe nditure
on olde r pe ople is signific a nt a nd is e xpe c te d to grow be c a use of de mogra phic a ge ing.
W hile this is a c ha lle nge for public fina nc e s a nd for sta nda rds of c a re for the e lde rly,
gove rnme nts a nd busine sse s c a n a lso be e nc oura ge d to innova te to mitiga te c osts a nd
de ve lop te c hnologie s, busine sse s a nd othe r initia tive s (E urope a n Pa rlia me nt, 2015).
Inste a d of c onside ring the e lde rly only a s a burde n on soc ie ty, give n the a ssoc ia tion
be twe e n the a ge ing of the popula tion a nd ne ga tive prospe c ts suc h a s pre ssure on the
pe nsion syste m, inc re a se d public e xpe nditure on se rvic e s a nd soc ia l we lfa re a nd a lowe r
prope nsity to c onsume , it c a pture s not only the issue s, but a lso the opportunitie s tha t it
offe rs. T he c ha lle nge is to c ha nge pe rspe c tive , from the ide a of a ssista nc e to tha t of
supply, sta rting from a re thinking of the syste m of se rvic e s a nd infra struc ture (Gra ne lli,
2021). It’s a progre ssive re va lua tion of de mogra phic a ge ing, a ime d a t c onve rting a
possible proble m into a n importa nt growth opportunity for the e c onomy, e spe c ia lly in
Ita ly, the olde st c ountry in E urope a nd se c ond in the world, pre c e de d only by Ja pa n. T he
de ma nd a nd the ne e ds of the e lde rly a re not only a soc ia l c ost to be a r, but a lso the sourc e
for e c onomic growth a nd e mployme nt, with positive re pe rc ussions not only for the
e lde rly but a lso for young pe ople . T he Silve r E c onomy is e xpe c te d to a ffe c t a lmost e ve ry
se gme nt of the e c onomy, e spe c ia lly in the se rvic e -orie nte d se c tor tha t foc use s on the
we llne ss of Silve r c onsume rs (B a tsa ikha n, 2017). T he Silve r E c onomy inc lude s two
life style s of the e lde rly. T he first c a te gory is willing to live inde pe nde ntly, while the
othe r one pre fe rs to be a ssiste d in spe c ia liz e d struc ture s. “ T he se rvic e s to be de ve lope d
se e m to be simila r, but the re spe c tive ta sks a re quite diffe re nt” ( Z sa rnoc z ky, 2016).
T oda y, the housing infra struc ture c a pa bility is not re a dy to me e t the ne e ds of olde r
a dults, but the de ma nd for nursing home s a nd Silve r house s re pre se nts a n opportunity
a lso for the c onstruc tion se c tor, re sulting in job c re a tion (R uddoc k, 2016). Not to be
unde re stima te d a lso the impa c t of the e lde rly on the tourism se c tor, the Ita lia n one is the
fifth in the world for re ve nue s (T he W orld B a nk, 2019), give n the ir spe nding c a pa c ity
a nd more fre e time to de dic a te to the se a c tivitie s. He a lthy pe nsione rs with a disa bility
ma y wa nt to ha ve a ssistive te c hnologie s for the ir own we ll-be ing a nd a utonomous life
a nd the ir ne e ds a nd pre fe re nc e s c a n stimula te the e me rge nc e of ne w ma rke ts.
T e c hnology c a n pla y a de c isive role , a llowing the c re a tion of innova tive solutions, with
c onse que nt positive e ffe c ts on e c onomic growth a nd e mployme nt. T he de mogra phic
Pag. 12 a 94
c ha nge c ome s with gre a t opportunitie s a s it a llows to live , work a nd tra ve l for more
ye a rs but if a ge ing wa nts to be pe rc e ive d a s a positive e xpe rie nc e , it ha s to be
a c c ompa nie d by c ontinuous opportunitie s for he a lth, pa rtic ipa tion a nd sa fe ty in orde r to
improve the qua lity of life of olde r pe ople (W orld He a lth Orga niz a tion, 2002). T he te rm
"a c tive a ge ing" ha s be e n a dopte d to e xpre ss the proc e ss to a c hie ve this vision.
1.2 De mogr aphic tr e nds in Italy
Historic a lly, Ita ly ha s a lwa ys be e n a mong the c ountrie s with the highe st pre se nc e of
olde r pe ople a nd the proportions ha ve inc re a se d ve ry signific a ntly with the pa ssa ge of
time . Ita ly is the olde st c ountry in E urope by the sha re of ove r-65 on the tota l popula tion
(T a ble 1.1), with a va lue of 23.2% c ompa re d to the E U a ve ra ge of 20.6%, followe d by
Finla nd a nd Gre e c e (22.3%). Globa lly, only Ja pa n ha s a la rge r se gme nt, with a sc ore of
28.4%, fa r supe rior to a ny othe r c ountry.
R ank Count ry % 65+ of t ot al populat ion
1 J apan 28.4
2 I t aly 23.2
3 Finland 22.3
4 G reec e 22.3
5 Port ugal 22.1
6 G ermany 21.8
7 B ulgaria 21.6
8 Croat ia 21.3
9 Puert o R ic o 20.8
10 Lat via 20.5
Table 1.1 - % 65+ of total population. Sources: Eurostat (2020), The World Bank (2020).
As shown in Figure 1.1, one of the re a sons lie s in the lowe r birth ra te a s the we llne ss of
popula tion inc re a se s. For e xa mple , in more a dva nc e d soc ie tie s, longe r study pe riods
re sult in a postpone me nt of life pha se s c ompa re d to pa st ge ne ra tions, inc luding la te
e ntry into the la bour ma rke t a nd the re fore la te e c onomic inde pe nde nc y. Ista t (2018)
c onfirms tha t the re is a c le a r re la tionship be twe e n e c onomic a utonomy a nd the
possibility of ha ving c hildre n. T he se c ond one is re pre se nte d by the be tte r living a nd
Pag. 13 a 94
he a lth c onditions, whic h re sult in a longe r life e xpe c ta nc y, tha t in ha lf a c e ntury ha s
inc re a se d by a bout 12 ye a rs. Afte r the pe a k of births re a c he d in the 1960s, a pha se of
ste a dy de c line be ga n, with a c olla pse in the 1970s. T he 2020 fe rtility ra te is 1.24 c hildre n
pe r woma n, with a re c ord low in 1995, whe n wome n ha d 1.19 a ve ra ge c hildre n a nd the n
we nt up to 1.44 in 2011. Sinc e the n, the de sc e nt is c onsta nt, with a ne ga tive c ha nge in
a ny following ye a r, e roding the youth a ge c la sse s, re sulting in a progre ssive struc tura l
imba la nc e in the popula tion (Figure 1.2).
1946
1951
1956
1961
1966
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2006
2011
2016
2020
Child per woman
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
Years
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Tot al Fert ilit y R at e Life expect ancy
Figure 1.1 - Total Fertility Rate and life expectancy. Sources: Istat, The World Bank.
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90-94
95-99
100+
0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000
Figure 1.2 - Population by age range. Source: Istat (01/01/2021).