12
1.2 Turkey and the European Union
Since the association agreement signed by Turkey and Europe in 1963, EU economic
relations with Turkey have improved systematically, and today, the country appears
much more integrated with main European trade and economic networks.
On a superficial level, the analysis of E.U. politicians about Turkish membership is still
divided between those who are sceptical and those who are in favour. Religious beliefs
and geographical position are the main points against the membership, while economic
and trade considerations are the main points in favour. In any case circumstances are
much more complex than they might appear.
In December 2004 the European Council decided unanimously to start accession
negotiations with Turkey, “407 votes were in favour and 262 against"
8
.
"The growing scepticism is reflected by the new negotiating framework formally agreed
by the Luxemburg European Council and endorsed by the European Parliament in 2006.
While accession is defined as the 'shared objective of the negotiations, the negotiations
are defined as an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed
beforehand"
9
.
One of the clearest examples of the functional opposition to Turkish membership is
represented by those raising concern about shifting EU structural funds to Turkey, and
the massive influence that a Turkish membership would have within European
institutions. "too big, too poor [Turkey] to join the Union" stated a report of Germany’s
European Parliament’s Christian-Democratic Party,.
A document drafted in December 2012 by the European Commission agrees with the
Luxembourg European Council conclusions of December 1997. However it was the
Helsinki European Council which once and for all granted Turkey the status of
candidate. The application would entail fulfilling various requirements in areas of
common interests: “political reforms, alignment with acquis ⃰, dialogue of foreign policy,
visas, mobility and migration, trade, energy, counter terrorism and participation in
community programs"
10
.
Especially in the field of energy, with a view to Turkey's development as a potential
energy hub, the EU and Turkey started their cooperation with a number of important
energy issues. Moreover, since 1995 Turkey and EU have formed a Customs Union,
continuing to boost bilateral trade which totalled € 120 billion only in the 2011. “Turkey
is the EU's sixth biggest trading partner, while the EU is Turkey's biggest. A bit less than
half of Turkey's total trade is with the EU and almost 75% of the foreign investment that
flows into Turkey with a strong high technology component comes from the EU"
11
.
However Turkey decided not to implement the Customs Union leaving several trade
issues unresolved, such as the abolition of technical barriers for trade, or restrictions on:
import goods from third countries, state aid, enforcement of intellectual property rights,
8
Stefano Braghiroli, “An empirical assessment of MPE's voting behaviour on Turkey and Turkish membership”, Centre of
the study of political change (CIRCAP), University of Siena, 2010. Osservatorio sui Balcani website.
9
European Commission 2005.
10
European Commission, Turkey 2012 progress report (October 2011-september 2012), Brussels 2012. p. 4.
11
Ibid. p. 5.
13
requirements for the registration of new pharmaceutical products and discriminatory tax
treatment. The EU urged Turkey to remove all remaining restrictions on the free
movement of goods, including means of transport regarding Cyprus, and to implement
the Customs Union fully.
As regards financial assistance " € 856 million has been earmarked for Turkey from the
Instrument for Pre-Accession Assistance (IPA) for the year 2012. In line with the
Multiannual Indicative Planning Document (MIPD) for 2011-2013, importance has been
given to further advance a sector-based approach which aims to better focus assistance
on political priorities"
12
and for economic, social, and rural development.
Furthermore Turkey is benefiting from a series of regional and horizontal programmes
under the IPA, but it needs to improve the quality of its programmes and projects and to
avoid loss of funds.
Ankara also actively participates in EU Programmes and Agencies: the seventh research
Framework Custom Program 2013; fiscal programmes for 2013; the European
Environmental Agency; the Competitiveness and Innovation Framework program
(Including the Entrepreneurship and innovation programme and the Information
Communication Technologies Policy Support Programme); Cultural Progress 2007,
Lifelong Learning and Youth in Action. IPA funds are used to meet part of the costs of
participation in most of these programmes.
“Although such adjustment process is positive for economic stability, Turkey has large
external imbalances, and remains vulnerable to further global financial shocks, in
particular capital flow reversal"
13
. In 2011, for example, the Turkish economy grew by
8.5% only slightly down from 9.2% in 2010. Growth was largely driven by the private
sector, with consumer spending up 7.7% in the last year and private sector investment
reached 22.8%. The strength of domestic demand led to import volumes increasing
10.6% in that year, while the level of export volume was 6.5% higher than in 2010,
partly as a result of the depreciation of the Turkish Lira ( by 20% against the Euro).
12
Ibid. p. 6.
acquis: 35 chapter of the EU’s law. Is a force step imposed by EU regard the main issues like water and the energy
program, human rights. Turkey must fulfil in order to define its access into the Union. Turkey must comply with all 35
areas of EU law in order to join the club In the seven years since negotiations began, Turkey has opened only 13
chapters, and closed only one, on science and research. No chapters have been opened for two years. Eighteen
chapters have been frozen.
13
Ibid. p. 37.
14
1.2.1 The other side of Turkish Foreign Policy
At the same time Turkey could become an example for the entire Middle East having a
successful mixture of a capitalistic economy and the Muslim world, but above all, for its
continued search for self-determination. Especially under the Erdoğan government,
Turkish foreign policy has became clear and oriented towards a very ambitious target to
be a reference point for all the Middle East. The “main characteristics of Turkey with its
democratic system are its Islamic character, a pluralistic government and rule of law in a
Muslim society, not to mention the pride and wisdom of its leaders who reject any form
of subordination or submission. This is the Turkey that has become an inspiration to the
Arab people”
14
.
Erdoğan did not want to submit Turkey to the will of the leaders of the European
countries, especially the former French Prime Minister Sarkozy who was always against
a possible membership of Turkey in the European Union because of the religious
component. “In order to drive the message home, Erdoğan’s gift to Sarkozy was a letter
written by Ottoman Sultan Sulaiman the Magnificent in 1526, in response to a plea from
the Christian king of France. Francis I had been taken prisoner by fellow Christian
Spaniards, and he asked for assistance from the Muslim Ottomans. Sulaiman sent his
assurances, followed by a military force which freed the French king”
15
.
The goal of the Turkish Prime Minister was to remind Christian Europe of the Turkish
role in history, and that its strategic importance and power in the Middle East continues
as in the past, always with a tolerant approach to religion. The Arabs must learn from
this.
14
Bouthaina Shaaban, “Turkey as a model for the new Middle East”, Middle East Monitor website, March 2011.
15
Ibid.
15
1.2.2 Turkey in the Mediterranean
It is clear that the economic relationship between Turkey and most of the countries along
the Mediterranean coast is influenced by the European Union. However Turkey, because
of its geographical position, is also considered as a “hub” for the MENA(Middle East
and North Africa) organization. This is especially so because of its particularly strategic
position in the Greater Middle East. It is interesting to note how the International
Monetary Fund also added Afghanistan and Pakistan to this Organization changing the
acronym to MENAP.
This organization is still important on the international level because of the reserves of
oil and natural gas, which are important for global economic stability. According to the
Oil and Gas Journal (January 1
st
, 2009) the MENA region also includes: Bahrain,
Djibouti, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malta, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Syria, United Arab Emirates, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya,
Morocco and Algeria. It means that MENAP reached 60% of the world's oil reserves and
45% of the world's natural gas reserves.
According to the economic development of the Mediterranean area, a more recent project
called “Custom Med”, was signed in Taormina, Sicily, at the beginning of 2012. Italy
and Turkey were the main signatories. The main aim of this project is to improve the
economic cooperation and market protection as well as border control to create free trade
and commerce, which mostly concerns the circulation of goods within the Euro-
Mediterranean area. “The project officially started on 12th April 2012 and will extend
over a period of 30 months. Its purpose is to increase circulation of goods among
selected Mediterranean ports (Aqaba, Beirut, Piraeus and Alicante) by developing
common customs procedures and increasing the use of ICT. This will contribute to
reducing the length of import-clearing processes at the same time reinforcing the
competiveness of the concerned ports”
16
. Custom Med’s total budget for this initiative
amounts to “€ 1.163.186 of which € 1.046.867 as an ENPI contribution (90%)”
17
and
these results were coordinated by the University of Genoa while other organizations such
as Lebanese Public Customs Administration (Lebanon); Port Institute for Studies and
Co-operation (Spain, Comunidad Valenciana); Piraeus Port Authority (Greece, Attiki);
Alicante Port Authority (Spain, Comunidad Valenciana); Aqaba Development
Corporation (Jordan, Al-Aqaba) are involved as partners.
This project has been founded on a strong basis made up of six million consumers. Past
economic relations reached almost € 45 billion in 2009, during which Italy played an
important role in coordinating South Mediterranean economic activities. Moreover the
Mediterranean commercial relations improved and were accepted enthusiastically by
Turkey. This coordination aims at favouring well known transportation corridors and are
helpful at fighting the illegal transportation of drugs which implement the international
16
Custom Med website, http://www.enpicbcmed.eu/communication/custom-med-improve-goods-circulation-
mediterranean
17
Ibid.
16
black economy and organized crime.
Turkey offers a good economic reference point in the Mediterranean context, especially
concerning the evolution of both its domestic and foreign economic policies, compared
to the last thirty years. Nonetheless Turkish growth remains strictly interconnected with
its economic partners. During the last nine years the average annual growth rate
remained stable at 5.2% which has placed Turkey 18
th
in the rating of the world’s best
economies and 7
th
in Europe.
Following the last statics provided by ISPAT (Investment Support and Promotion
Agency of Turkey) in 2012 Turkey reached 12
th
place for direct foreign investment with
€ 110 billion invested. During the last ten years Turkey has scheduled its political
economy on a “soft landing” programme to “counteract some of its chronic diseases,
including a current accounts deficit (at the unsustainable threshold of circa 10% of GDP
at the end of 2011), and a dangerously high 10.45% inflation rate in 2011”
18
.
Although, in 2012, the Turkish government approved investment incentives as a reaction
against energy and energy production dependence which is mostly financed by foreign
investment with short-term projects. This kind of political economy orientation will
make the government able to redirect those foreign investments into the technologic area
of local production and on export productivity for the international market. In recent
years structural reforms have been made, especially in relation to the labour market but
“more in particular [with] the main factors of internal vulnerability and high levels of
inflation (which, began to drop from May 2012 and settled at 6.1% in December last
year, the best result in the last 40 years). As regards the labour market, unemployment
closed at 10.1% in 2012”
19
.
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), since 1999, in the macro-economic
sphere, Turkey has adopted some recovery measures to improve its export
internationally. But, except for the years 2008/2009 and 2012, when Turkish GDP
registered at only 2,2%, we can say that the newest Turkish productive model has been
successful. It was focused on more exports, research and growth programmes for Turkish
enterprises; more transparency for the Public Administration and education and justice
were improved with an eye to EU membership. Finally the goal of this process was to
better the regional development inside Turkey.
“A slowdown was already 'partly envisaged in the Medium Term Programme 2012-
2014, in which the Turkish government has been identifying strategies along which
Turkey will have to move in this three-year period, focusing on the need for policies to
support employment, financial discipline, [the] stimulation of domestic savings, [all of]
which fight the excessive foreign deficit and ensure greater macroeconomic stability”
20
.
18
Italian Embassy-Turkey in collaboration with ICE, Summary Tab of Turkey, April 2013, p.6
19
Italian Embassy-Turkey op. cit. p.6
20
Italian Embassy-Turkey op. cit. p.6
Globally active, ISPAT operates with a network of local consultants in Belgium, Canada, China, France, Germany,
India, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Saudi Arabia, Spain, Gulf States (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar and United Arab
Emirates), Russian Federation, United Kingdom, United States and South Korea, providing a wide range of services to
investors through a holistic approach and assisting them in achieving optimum results in Turkey. The professional team
ISPAT is able to provide assistance to investors in Arabic, Chinese, English, French, German, Italian, Japanese, Korean,
17
1.3 The importance of the energy sector and foreign investment
After the Cold War ended, there was a revival of traditional patterns of trade, human
relations, and cultural exchange along the main fluvial routes (Danube, Tigris, Euphrates,
etc.) which have always been the historical means of transport, “there has been an
immense intensification of trade, tourism, educational, and media linkages between
Turkey and its neighbours to the East and the West”
21
.
Today it is also possible to include the energy resource sector. Indeed, in February 2012,
Stefan Fule, UE commissioner for Enlargement and European Neighbourhood Policy
and Gunter Ottinger, EU commissioner for energy, came to Ankara for a formal visit to
discuss the new growing role of one of the fastest economies of this new century,
Turkey. After China, Turkey will become one of the most dynamic economies as far as
the demand of natural gas and electricity concerned. Even if 26% of the total demand of
energy is being met by domestic resources, the other 74% depends on imports and this is
a serious limitation for the Turkish energy policy. Nonetheless, the Erdoğan
government’s goal, in the follow years, will have as its target the production of its own
energy security: “diversify its energy supply routes and source countries; increase the
share of renewable and include the nuclear in its energy mix; this way Turkey could take
significant steps to increase its energy efficiency; and to contribute to Europe’s energy
security.”
22
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that electricity, natural gas and oil
demand will reach “393-434 billion KWN, 59 BCM and 59 million tons” respectively,
but Turkey will also need foreign investment to satisfy this demand and investment from
private sector. The plan is to reach 30% of domestic demand in 2023 with the help of
alternative sources, such as: geothermal, hydro, solar and wind energy.
Moreover in January 2009 Turkey was a signatory of the EU’s IRENA (International
Renewable Energy Agency) and in the process Turkey to harmonize its energy
legislation with the EU acquis program. As regards nuclear energy and as required by
EU legislation, Turkey’s government intends to establish two new sites in Akkuyu and
Sinop. This is possible thanks to some intergovernmental agreements with Russia. The
double network Turkey must face, makes of this country a natural energy bridge between
on the one hand the source countries in the Middle East and the Caspian basin, and on
the other hand the consumer market which is mostly in the EU.
As regards oil pipelines, the Baku-Tiblisi-Ceyhan (BTC)pipeline is the main component
of the East-West energy corridor from Azerbaijan through Georgia and finally to the
Turkish coast. This pipeline has a capacity of one billion barrels per day and is the
second longest pipeline in the world.
Another one is the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik crude oil pipeline, which was created from the
Russian, Spanish and Turkish and is committed to supporting investors so that they develop successful business offices
in Turkey.
21
The cost of no EU-Turkey III: FIVE VIEWS.Open Society Foundation, May 2011, Istanbul.
Krzysztof Boninnski , “Turkey must enrich the European Union’s political imagination”. President of UNIA & POLSKA
Foundation, Warsaw. Former journalist Financial Times.
22
Republic of Turkey(website), Ministry of foreign affairs/energy issue.