5
potential non-linearity in price transmission due to the inactivity band of
transaction costs. A recent approach rely on modeling the inactivity band using
the threshold autoregressive (TAR) models (Ejrnaes and Persson, 2000; Goodwin
and Piggott, 2001; Abdulai, 2006; Serra et al., 2006; Fackler and Tastan, 2008).
Another important issue in market integration is the symmetric (or
asymmetric) nature of price transmission. Meyer and Cramon-Tabaudel (2004)
surveyed the literature on asymmetric price transmission (APT) identifying some
of the possible causes of asymmetry: market power and adjustment costs (Ward,
1982), non-equivalence of demand and supply shocks (Cramon-Tabaudel, 1998),
distorted price reporting process (Bailey and Brosen, 1989), asymmetric
information (Abdulai, 2000). Although the survey is very explicative of many
aspects of APT, we argue that a not negligible part of the explanation might lie in
the arbitrage opportunities could be exploited through storage. In particular, when
either trade and storage are introduced in spatial commodities models it has been
shown that storage tends to be more stabilizing than trade (Wright, 2001).
Unfortunately, although the literature associated with market integration of
agricultural markets is extensive (some recent references are listed: Ardeni, 1989;
Benson and Faminow, 1990; Goodwin, 1992; Bessler, Yang and Wongcharupan,
2003; Vollrath, and Charles, 2006; Serra et al., 2006; Awokuse, 2007; Federico,
2007; Meyer, 2007; Fackler and Tastan, H., 2008; Chen and Lee, 2008; Coleman,
2009a and 2009b; Miljkovic, 2009), a vast majority of empirical studies dealt with
few categories of products (in particular cereals and meat) and for many
agricultural goods the topic remains under investigated. In particular, since many
studies do not consider perishable products, it is difficult to attribute different
findings to characteristics such product storability or transaction costs.
The fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) sector is influenced by some
peculiarities of the products: seasonality, perishability and sensitiveness to climate
conditions. European Union (EU) is either the largest import Country and one of
the most important producer in the World. Therefore, the European Commission
is really concerned about the sensitiveness of the F&V sector to price variability.
In a recent Council Regulation (EC 1182/2007) « the production of fruit and
vegetables (has been defined) unpredictable [ ] and surplus on the market, even
if (they are) not too great, can significantly disturb the market ». As a result, fresh
6
F&V sector is often affected by market crisis, due to factors as product
perishability and production and consumption sensitiveness to climate variations
(EC, 2007a). Recently the F&V CMO reform has introduced new instruments to
stabilize the markets (EC, 2007b) that tend to transfer the risk to other agents: the
efficacy of these instruments depends on the spatial dimension of the crises. For
this reason, the measure of market integration assumes relevant importance for
crisis management and prevention: Integration could increase both the probability
and the scale of an event (Sparling and Casswell, 2006), that is crises in highly
integrated markets are spread and diluted, while they tend to be stronger and
localized in isolated or low integrated markets.
Despite the serious policy implications and relevance of assessing market
integration in F&V sector, the topic remains under-investigated in few articles
about U.S. F&V sector (Sexton, Kling and Carman, 1991; Jordan and VanSickle,
1995; Padilla-Bernal, Thilmany and Loureiro, 2003) and, to the best of our
knowledge, literature lacks of studies on EU F&V sector.
The challenge of this dissertation is to assess the degree of market
integration in some F&V sectors through econometric techniques. In particular we
aim to estimate the speed of price transmission among closely located markets as
well as the price transmission across different Regions. By selecting products that
differ for storability, incidence of transportation costs and production technologies
we are able to generalize our findings to the whole EU F&V sector. The
dissertation is articulated as following.
Chapter 1 (European Union fruits and vegetables sector) is dedicated to
the description of the EU F&V sector: production, consumption and trade flows.
Attention is paid to synthesize the importance of assessing the degree of market
integration as a key aspect to be considered when planning policies to limit the
effect of market crises. The last part of the chapter provide a more detailed
description of the production and trade flows of the products selected for the
present analysis: tomatoes, cauliflower and apple.
The second chapter (Market integration and LOP in agricultural markets:
a review) is a survey of the literature on Law of One Price and Market Integration.
The first part reviews the definitions and the theory related to the economic
concepts of market integration and LOP; the second part examines advantages and
7
limitations of various empirical approaches proposed to assess the integration of
markets; the last part describes the main issues on which the debate is focused and
our suggestions for further line of research.
The third chapter (Empirical design: methodology and data) illustrates the
methodology adopted in this dissertation. This empirical study, carried out on a
large set of markets located in 6 different EU Countries, consists of two main
steps: the identification of the markets that mainly influence the prices of other
markets in the same Region and the analysis of integration either inside and
among Regions. Regarding the former, we employed Granger-Causality tests and
estimated Ravallion-type regressions; the latter has been achieved by using
several specifications. Consistently with a majority of recent literature on price
transmission, we adopted threshold autoregressive models and contributed to the
debate by testing whether price transmissions are asymmetric.
Chapter 4 (Analysis and results) reports the empirical findings. They
support the intuition that the speed of price transmission depend on the distance of
markets and on storability of F&V. Interestingly we found that product
perishability accelerates the transmission of shocks in prices. In most of the cases
we estimated different speed of adjustments for positive and negative price
movements, and, generally, the former are slower transmitted. A second
consideration relies on the relationship between storability and market integration:
fixing the distance, the models estimate the largest transaction costs for
cauliflower, high perishable, and the lowest for apple, which are storable for
several months.
According to its purpose, the study offers some pioneeristic estimates of
market integration in the EU F&V sector which is based on techniques more
sophisticated than simple analysis of prices correlations.
8
1
European Union fruits and vegetables economy
The fresh fruits and vegetables (F&V) sector is characterized by the
peculiarities of the products: seasonality, perishability and sensitiveness to
climate conditions.
Generally, the supply side presents an high degree of seasonality and
products are not disposable during the entire year. Consumption and
production in the F&V sector are affected by weather conditions, while the
degree of perishability tend to constrain the F&V tradability in very short
period making the supply inelastic.
In other words, F&V sector is characterized by features that contribute
to render the market exposed to high price variability that in some cases may
become market crises.
In European Union (EU) the temperate mood offers an ideal
environment for the production of temperate and sub-tropical fruits (citrus,
grapes, pears, apples, oranges, etc.), whose imports from non-EU members is
consistent only out of the growing season (counter-season supply). On the
opposite, tropical fruits production (bananas, pineapples, avocados, mangos,
etc.) is very scarce and EU market is mainly supplied through imported goods.
Differently, the internal production of vegetables is very large, leading
EU to a considerable degree of self-sufficiency (i.e. 99% for lettuce, 97% for
cucumbers, 90% for tomatoes). The low storability of vegetables represents a
natural barrier to the imports from non-EU member s, especially for high
perishable products (i.e. lettuce, cauliflower, etc.). Another obstacle to imports
from non-EU members is due to the expansion of the internal supply season by
growing vegetables in controlled conditions (i.e. greenhouses).
1.1 Production and consumption
EU is one of the biggest global producer of F&V. Despite the recent
declining trend, its production accounts for more than the 8 percent of world
9
production (more precisely, it supplies respectively 12% and 7% fruits and
vegetables of the world) .
The main Countries, Italy, Spain and France (accounting for more than
30% of the total EU), show different trends: Italian share has been almost
constant since 2000, while French and Spanish shares are respectively
decreasing and increasing. Other important producers are Greece, Germany,
Poland, Hungary and Portugal (Graph 1.1).
Graph 1.1 - EU fruits and vegetables shares.
Source: Our elaboration from FAOSTAT data
Grapes are the largest fruit, but most of the production is used for
making wine. Italy (30%), France (25%) and Spain (22%) are the main
producers, followed by Germany, Portugal and Greece.
Tomatoes is the second largest product (almost 30% of the total EU
vegetables production). The largest supplier, Italy (38%), is interested by a
production around 6.6 million tonnes. Spain is the second largest producer,
accounting for more than 20% of the total production.
Table 1.1 - Main EU fruits and vegetables producers (tones)
Annual average production
2000-2002 2005-2007 Share 2005-2007
Italy 32.523.165 32.653.865 25,30%
Spain 28.179.741 28.515.941 22%
France 19.683.406 16.366.773 12,70%
Greece 8.325.955 7.472.924 1,9%
Poland 7.391.193 7.383.998 1,9%
Romania 6.076.207 5.978.831 1,5%
Germany 8.334.859 5.746.849 1,5%
Netherlands 4.260.354 4.735.145 1,2%
United Kingdom 3.098.938 3.177.273 0,8%
Belgium 2.216.621 2.396.861 0,6%
Source: our calculations from EUROSTAT data.
Apples is the third product (40% of total fruit supply), with a
production around 12 million tones largely due to Italy (18%), France (17%),
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fruits 14.6% 14.0% 13.1% 12.8% 13.2% 12.2% 12.7%
Vegetables 9.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.4% 8.6% 8.0% 7.4%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
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