Policy Responses to Population Decline and Ageing

In a number of advanced industrialised countries, the fertility rates have remained below replacement level (that is women are having fewer than 2.1 children). This trend is also accompanied by population ageing. For example, while 18 percent of Italy’s population is now above age 65, it is estimated that approximately 35 per cent would be in that age bracket by 2050. Given current levels of immigration, this rate could lead to a 25 percent decline in the populations of countries such as Italy and Spain by the year 2050. Smaller and older populations have several societal implications, since they affect the size and the composition of the labour force, including the reduction of the ratio of persons in working age to the elderly, so that pensions, social security systems and care services are concerned.

The population division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat organized a meeting of experts in the year 2000 in New York to discuss policy responses related to population ageing and decline. A previous report issued by the Population division in March 2000, entitled “Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?”, identified migration as a possible partial solution.

Anyway, it is a shared opinion among policy makers that large-scale replacement migration is socially and politically unacceptable. International migration has limited impact on population dynamics unless there is a continuous flow, and, furthermore, numbers would have to be very large for very long time in order to have some consequences .
It is not possible to adapt temporary and selective labour migration programmes, as they have not worked in Europe.
The role of the public attitudes as a constraint on policy-making is contentious: for instance, in some areas of Germany the native population is expected to become a minority, a trend that public opinion rejects. However, it was noticed that, although the report of the poll is right, those living in areas with high immigration density have shown a less negative attitude. Could attitudes in general be altered to recognize migration’s beneficial effects?

It is also important to consider that in the world there is one billion people living in the developed countries and five billion people living in poorer countries, so future migration is determined by politics not only of rich countries.