Piloting a tool to assess climate change vulnerability among cocoa producers. The case of Jembrana, Bali, Indonesia

12 Adaptation strategies According to FAO estimates, if current global income and consumption growth trends do not decrease by 2050, agricultural production will have to increase by 60% to satisfy future demand. Meeting this goal will be more difficult due to climate change’s adverse impacts on agriculture, for which a quick and effective adaptation strategy is tremendously needed (FAO, 2013). Notably, developing countries are being hit hard by this phenomenon, with many small-scale producers lacking knowledge about potential adaptation options for their productive systems. These often have limited resources, assets and risk-taking capacity, and can rarely access production-enhancing technologies and financial support (Reddy, 2015). At the core of a sustainable adaptation process lies farmers’ capacity to implement a transition to a new system. This new system is characterized by higher productivity, more efficiency in using inputs, less variability and greater stability in outputs, and an increased resilience to risks, shocks and long- term climate variability. This can ultimately enhance food security, while preserving the natural resource base and vital ecosystem services. This process is hence a major one, requiring a shift in the way land, water, soil nutrients and genetic resources are managed (FAO, 2013). Furthermore, adaptation is not costless. Producers would need to invest financial resources, effort, and their time, with the related opportunity costs of not engaging in alternative profitable activities. A key criterion for good adaptation is, thus, its cost-effectiveness. When looking into the advantages of adaptation, we must assess the potential future impacts of climate change: the stronger they are projected to be, the stronger the benefits from adaptation can be. In the case of smallholder cocoa producers, it is widely recognized that only a forward-looking adaptation approach can ensure sustainable production, by enabling stakeholders to avoid catastrophic effects (Bunn et al., 2017; FAO, 2013). Designing an adaptation strategy requires to fulfill a series of steps, starting by evaluating the degree of climate change impacts and ending with implementing specific short and long-term practices. Here is a list of common climate change adaptation practices in cocoa production (Goenadi et al., 2012):