The Grand Renaissance Dam Water Diplomacy Mechanisms Applied on the River Nile Trans-boundary Conflict

In the previous section the Multi-track Water Diplomacy Framework was applied on the GERD conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. Each track and component of the framework was analyzed. Initially the context of the conflict was analyzed by illustrating the various political and socio-economical dimensions of both riparian countries, the biophysical characteristics on the basin, the alterations on the basin, the interdependency between conflicting countries, the status of conflict and cooperation, and the stakeholders‟ involvement and the presence of RBOs and their challenges and limitations. Afterwards, an idea was given on the customary institution represented by the historical legacy correlated with the level of trust between both riparian countries. The interaction between the above mentioned components was then reframed in the action situation component.
The limitations and difficulties of the action situations related to GERD conflict were apparent. For example, cooperation is undermined by incomplete assessment of effects related to GERD filling in downstream Egypt. As a matter of fact, the outputs resulted within relevant action situations are almost nonexistent when it comes to an agreed upon cooperation, water sharing and a filling mechanism between Ethiopia and Egypt.
Accordingly, also the outcome and the impact are non definable due to a weak cooperation over the Nile Basin and nonexistent cooperation over the GERD filling management between Egypt and Ethiopia.
Having said so, the objective remains the identification of Zones of Possible Effective Cooperation (ZOPEC) and the analytical framework taken into consideration as well as the exercise to associate an indicator to each analyzed component aim at the identification of possible areas that could promote effective cooperation and bring benefits. According to the Multi-track Water Diplomacy Framework those areas of effective cooperation are represented by the combination viable future action situations.
Accordingly it is possible now to start identifying the effective areas of cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia with the final objective of enhancing cooperation as the only route towards the GERD conflict resolution. In fact, it is possible now to determine viable future action situations by taking into consideration heterogeneous aspects combined with interdisciplinary and multi-track analysis which are fundamental to understand the complex situation of the trans-boundary water conflict related to the construction and the filling of the GERD conflict and, most importantly, this mechanism helps to achieve the acknowledgment that complex environmental problems are, indeed, resolved by complex problem solving approaches that are based on fluid borders among disciplines and where political borders and state centered approaches inevitably clash and collide with the fluid nature of water courses.
The filling of the various tables with the dimension, variables, and indicators of each component of the Multi-track Water Diplomacy Framework attempts to provide a demonstration that future viable action situations for the identification of potential zones of effective cooperation between Egypt and Ethiopia must inevitably involve the areas of political stability, socio-economical development, the biophysical status of the shared basin, the level of interdependencies, the effectiveness level of operating organizations on the basin and the main challenges they face, the status of current cooperation and the level of trust between both countries, an analysis of the current action situations, the outputs generated, and the outcomes achieved.
But which efforts are needed to increase political stability and socio-economical development especially in those areas that could enhance interdependencies and complementariness between Ethiopia and Egypt? What are the mechanisms to increase the effectiveness of RBOs? What is the role of the European Union as an international player?
All these aspects will be discussed in the following and last chapter where a focus will be given to the principles according to which conflict management programs should be designed and the way such programs can represent an opportunity for the European Union to increase its influence and its contribution towards peace and stability in the particular African region.