Techno-economic feasibility analysis and optimization of a hybrid renewable energy system to power an ultra-fast charging station for electric vehicles on Rome's GRA

To estimate the crowding at the charging station, it is appropriate to make predictions on the EVs penetration scenarios into the Italian market. Starting from the national forecasts, an estimation of the electrical fleet in the city of Rome will be done, and in particular the one that affects mobility in the extra-urban area of the GRA at the point where the charging station will be placed.
When delineating the various development scenarios for electric cars, the time reference will be 2025, but forecasts by 2030 are also reported because that year is indicated by the representatives of the automotive sector and other experts, as the reference time horizon for achieving EVs mass production.
Despite the impact of the pandemic, the objectives set by the main car manufacturers active in Italy, in terms of electric vehicles sold and new electric models offered, have not undergone significant changes over the last year. Indeed, some companies have recently revised upwards the estimate of their sales targets. Below are the data relating to the main production companies that have been taken as a reference for the study of the penetration scenarios carried on by the “Energy & Strategy Group” of “Politecnico di Milano”, with particular attention to the sales volumes to be achieved as a goal for the next years.
Therefore, assuming that the global objective is evenly distributed among the countries in which the car manufacturer is active and that the players for which the objectives are not known will behave on average in the same way proportionally to their market share, it has been estimated that the number of electric vehicles sold in Italy in 2025 will be in the order of 400.000 units [17], equal to approximately 20- 25% of total annual sales.
Starting from this data, several hypotheses have been developed corresponding to different levels of penetration. It was assumed that in the time horizon object of the analysis, the amount of total annual vehicle registrations will remain constant at 2019 value [88], approximately 1,9 million sales, stable value in the years prior to the pandemic.
At a methodological level, to estimate the penetration rate in 2025 and 2030, a technological evolution curve was applied based on the indications of the market operators and calculated on the percentage of electric vehicles on the total of new registrations in each year.

• The "base scenario" foresees for the subsistence of a trend that has already begun to manifest over the last two years, without particular upheavals in the approach of Italians to the electric car. In this scenario, the vehicle fleet of electric cars (BEVs+PHEVs) is expected to reach 0.9 million units by 2025 and 3.2 million by 2030, with an increase of over 2 million from 2025 to 2030.

• The "moderate development scenario” appears to be in line with the provisions of car manufacturer development plans and will need the current incentive systems to be maintained. The electric car fleet by 2025 should count for 1.5 million units, and by 2030 will exceed 5.5 million units, a value close to that envisaged in the Integrated National Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) equal to 6 million [89] electric vehicles, with an increase of 4 million from 2025 to 2030.

• The "accelerated development scenario” requires the presence of relevant support mechanisms designed to change the purchasing habits of Italian drivers and the development of an appropriate charging infrastructure, both with public and private access. Here the fleet of electric cars circulating by 2030 reaches approximately 7 million units, with almost 2 million vehicles by 2025.
The comparison between the three scenarios is shown below.

A common denominator between the three scenarios concerns the fact that the real impact of electric vehicles begins to be seen around 2025 - consistently with prediction by the PNIEC - followed by a period of very sustained growth in the second half of the decade.
It should also be emphasized the significant difference between the three scenarios, partly due to the fact that the Italian electric mobility market is still in a development phase, and therefore the forecasts represent a development potential. In fact, looking at 2025, data go from about 900.000 vehicles in the base scenario to over 1,9 million in the accelerated one. The range – even if thinner compared to previous forecasts - widens looking at the figure for 2030.
In any case, boundary conditions created by policy makers, such as incentives to purchase low-emission vehicles, and by operators, with the further development of the vehicle offer and public charging infrastructure, will make a significant contribution to EVs deployment, directing the Italian market towards one scenario rather than the other.
To date, the scenario considered by many to be more probable one, and in any case closer to the real situation that will arise in the future, is the “moderate development” scenario, which is in fact based on forecasts made starting from objectives and development models already largely started, and will be the one taken as a reference with 1,5 million electric vehicles on the roads by 2025.