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INTRODUCTION
What does energy security mean?
The International Energy Agency (IEA) definition of energy security is: “the
uninterrupted availability of energy sources at affordable price”. In the short-term it
means the ability to respond promptly to abrupt energy supply disruptions; while in the
long-term it means encouraging and improving diversification both of energy types and
supply sources.
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Moreover, United Nation Development Programme (UNDP) claims
that “Ensuring energy security will require diversification of types and sources of
energy, with increasing focus on consumer needs, on indigenous energy supplies,
energy efficiency and regional interconnections”.
2
The variety of the energy mix is
important to reduce the dependency on fossil fuels and on oil and gas imports. Hence,
investments in new technologies development and in renewable energies address both
climate change and energy security issues. The bond between climate change, energy
security and development is tightening up, having interlinked goals – like encouraging
the usage of renewable energies aiming both in reducing greenhouse gases (GHG)
emissions and diversify the energy mix. Notwithstanding how important is the impact
of renewable energies on countries’ own energy security, their capacity to entirely
replace fossil fuels is still a mere ambition.
3
The shares of renewable energy sources
(RES) in European Union (EU) and China are increasing, contributing to diversify the
1
International Energy Agency, Energy Supply Security: Emergency Response of IEA Countries, IEA,
2014.
2
United Nations Development Programme, Sustainable Energy,
http://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home/ourwork/environmentandenergy/focus_areas/sustainable-
energy.html .
3
European Commission, Green Paper: EU development policy in support of inclusive growth and
sustainable development, Brussels, 2010.
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types of energy exploited, but in the forthcoming years – both in the short and long term
– the employment of import resources like crude oil and natural gas will remain
dominant. Therefore, sustainable development and climate change will be issues not
faced in this dissertation.
We have also to take into account that the meaning of ensuring energy security differs
from country to country. Economies highly dependent on imports of oil and gas are
concerned about supply; on the contrary, exporting countries focus on the stability of
demand. To address both these problems, critical factors are durability of supply and
diversification of sources. The latter is of utmost importance because it deeply affects
prices. If there are several sellers, there is high probability that the price will remain
stable.
4
Diversification of energy sources became a fundamental matter of national
strategy since the eve of World War I, when First Lord of the Admiralty Winston
Churchill decided to rely on oil from Persia as the main power source of the British
navy’s ships. Nowadays the famous sentence said by Churchill still remains valid:
“Safety and certainty in oil lie in variety and variety alone”. After one century nothing
changed and still diversification of supply is the main tool to ensure energy security. It
stabilizes the markets and provides alternatives in case of disruption, addressing both
producers and consumers prime concerns. Accordingly, in order to implement energy
security also resilience, high-quality information and the acknowledgement of the
globalization of the energy security system – in particular regarding China and India
energy needs for their growth – are complementing key principles.
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The IEA’s Model of Short-term Energy Security (MOSES) defines – external –
resilience as: the “ability to respond to disruption of energy imports by substituting with
other supplier or supply routes”. For crude oil, oil products, natural gas (also LNG) and
coal the principal indicators of resilience are the entry points (ports and pipelines) and
the diversity of suppliers; while the main risks concern the net-import dependency and
the political stability of suppliers. The physical security of supply to face sudden
disruptions is more relevant in the short-term, while in the long-term other
aforementioned notions, like rapidly growing demand, affordability and volatility of
4
Oil&Gas Journal, Defining Energy Security, http://www.ogj.com/articles/print/vol-110/issue-1c/regular-
features/journally-speaking/defining-energy-security.html .
5
Daniel Yergin, Ensuring Energy Security, Foreign Affairs, Vol. 85, No. 2 (Mar. - Apr., 2006), pp. 69-
77.
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energy prices, have to be taken into consideration.
6
According to these facts the main
goal of my thesis – concerning both the short and the long term – will be how to deal
with import dependency and ensuring diversification of supply as the main tools to
maintain stable prices and markets. Moreover, I want to underline that “security of
supply does not seek to maximize energy self-sufficiency or to minimize dependence, but
aims to reduce the risks linked to such dependence”.
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The first chapter will outline European energy dependency and the main threats to
European energy security. One of the main challenges when dealing with security issues
is to get an overarching approach, concerning also the background of the current
situation. Furthermore, I wanted to provide data on the shares of energy import
dependency in order to demonstrate in a geopolitical context that the diversification of
energy sources is nowadays even more crucial than in the past to improve European
energy security. When I started to address the topic, I felt the need to get the whole
picture on the confrontation between EU and China’s companies in Africa in order to
avoid uncertain and random conclusions. For this reason, it is necessary to take a look at
the domestic policy in each country, especially in China because of the government
direct influence over Chinese companies behavior at home as well as abroad. The
second chapter will then attempt to explain how Chinese energy industry works and
how China Development Bank (CDB) and China EximBank are able to give financial
support to Chinese National Oil Companies (NOC) activities overseas. The chapter will
also analyze the relation between the NOCs behavior at home and abroad and what kind
of influence Chinese NOCs have in Africa. Given the lack of transparency and the
rising economy in China, it is fundamental to comprehend which tools are at disposal of
Chinese NOCs and how they use them.
Finally, the last chapter will regard EU and China’s relations with Sub-Saharan African
main oil and gas suppliers, trying to show what are the challenges the two parties have
to face in each African country in order to expand their influence and economic power
and what are, instead, the opportunities for cooperation.
6
International Energy Agency, Measuring Short-term Energy Security, IEA, 2011.
7
European Commission, Green Paper: Towards a European strategy for the security of energy supply,
Brussels, 2000.
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Chapter 1
EUROPE’S ENERGY SECURITY POLICY
1.1 Europe’s imports dependency and Common foreign energy policy
Europe energy imports dependency
Source: European Commission, EU Energy in figures, Brussels, 2013.
Since 1995 EU import dependency rose continuously – except after the 2008
financial crisis – till 2011. British Petroleum’s (BP) 2035 forecasts show that oil and
coal imports will decline respectively by 23% and 45%, but EU’s gas import
dependency will reach 84%. Taking into account the future falls in both the overall
European consumption (6%) and production (5%), EU’s total import dependency
should remain at a plateau of 55%. In addition, it is expected that China will overtake
Europe as the world’s largest energy importer by 2030 and also its energy demand per
capita will be higher than in EU.
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According to this data it is easily understandable why
“Energy Security is the key policy agenda of both China and EU in the twenty-first
century”.
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8
BP, Energy Outlook 2035: EU, http://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/pdf/Energy-economics/Energy-
Outlook/Regional_insights_European_Union_2035.pdf .
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Mehdi P. Amineh, Yang Guang, Secure Oil and Alternative Energy: The Geopolitics of Energy Paths of
China and European Union, Boston, Brill, 2012, p. 1.
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The EU’s strategy to ensure energy security differs substantially from China’s
energy policy. The European approach towards energy security is led by a strong
liberalization of the sector, free markets and EU member national interests. This is in
stark contrast to the Chinese System. In Europe the politicization of energy management
on a common level is still developing and not yet achieved. In fact, despite the need of a
more unified “common voice” in order to strengthen EU External Energy Policy, each
member states national interest continue to prevail. Undoubtedly, “speaking with one
voice” will help Europe gain major bargaining and economic power to strengthen ties
with producing countries and to develop more convenient partnerships. Anyway, the
clashing of European countries’ own energy policy objectives makes a common
approach in energy matters hard to achieve. Firstly, the European Union has to develop
a common internal energy market: in order to get credibility, an integrated and united
energy market for gas and electricity is needed. Otherwise, each country will continue
to conclude bilateral deals, caring only for their own energy interests and minimizing
the importance of a common security policy of supply. Secondly, Europe’s market
approach towards third countries has to be reconsidered, because most of non-EU
countries regard it as a “top-down” attitude. Finally, Europe has to plan accurately how
to support its Energy Security Policy since it has to take into consideration that over
90% of fossil fuels are located in non-democratic countries and often also in unstable
ones.
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Hence, a politicization of European security creating a common energy market
and a “common voice” will surely not be fast and easy to achieve. The “energy aquis
communautaire” towards unity and more integration will be a long process involving
every member state, having to deal with a mitigation of each country national interest.
Since 2006, the EU addressed the above-mentioned issues focusing on six key
areas: competitiveness and internal energy market, diversification of the energy mix,
solidarity, sustainable development, innovation and technology and external policy. In
order to tackle these problems the European Commission (EC) planned to further
enforce its open markets method: stimulating competition between companies to make
10
Arianna Checchi, Arno Behrens, Christian Egenhofer, Long-term Energy Security Risks for Europe: A
Sector Specific Approach, CEPS no. 309, January 2009, p. 39-40.
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them become European-wide competitors. Merging the several European gas and
electricity markets, the EU will lower end-users and industrial energy prices, enhance
security of supply and increase competitiveness. In order to improve the security of
supply in a liberalized market, the EU has also to augment transparency and
predictability while harmonizing rules to access to a single European grid for gas and
electricity. This will boost the European Foreign Energy Policy, helping to develop a
coherent common external policy that will be able to play a more effective international
role. Hence, diversifying the energy supplies remains always a priority area especially
concerning gas and oil imports. Therefore, further development of the EU-Africa
partnership will have a key role in the future diversification of energy imports.
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Crude Oil Imports by Region in European Union (EU27)
Region % of total
oil imports,
2001*
% of total
oil imports,
2005
% of total
oil imports,
2008
% of total
oil imports,
2011
% of total
oil imports,
2013
Middle
East
24.98% 21.59% 17.83% 19.47% 13.65%
Africa 19.78% 19.38% 23.23% 18.40% 25.47%
Asia 0.11% 0.08% 0.07% 0.08% 0.01%
FSU 18.76% 38.40% 38.41% 43.54% 42.02%
Europe 32.96% 17.37% 16.99% 15.11% 13.97%
America 3.33% 3.19% 3.48% 3.40% 4.88%
World
Volume
(1000 bbl)
3 918 882
4 510 392
4 441 852
3 868 887
3 570 619
* This data includes intra-EU plus extra-EU imports considering also United Kingdom and Denmark’s
shares. Source: European Commission, Registration of Crude Oil Imports and Deliveries in European
Union (EU27), 2001 – 2013.
As the above chart shows, crude oil imports from the European Economic Area
– most of them from Norway – decreased significantly over the last decade. In addition,
taking into consideration that since 2005 the United Kingdom became a net crude oil
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European Commission, Green Paper: A European Strategy for Sustainable, Competitive and Secure
Energy, Brussels, 2006.